Sunday 11 January 2009

Tech Stocks

Friedman Billings downgraded the semiconductor manufacturing industry saying their recent channel checks in Asia, as well as semiconductor inventory analysis, indicate the recovery in semiconductor manufacturing fundamentals will be slower than currently dialed into Street expectations. They downgraded Applied Materials (AMAT), ASML Holdings (ASML), Form Factor (FORM), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Teradyne (TER), and MEMC Electronic (WFR) from Outperform to Market Perform.

Argus downgraded Intel (INTC) to Hold from Buy saying the co's near-term prospects appear dismal due to the impact of the global economy on its end-user base. The company reported preliminary 4Q08 revenues of $8.2 billion, more than 20% below its initial 4Q guidance. The firm expects revs to remain weak at least through the first half of 2009.

Collins Stewart notes yesterday at CES 2009 pre-event keynote session, MSFT CEO Steve Ballmer announced the availability of Windows 7 Beta. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) announced multiple search/online deals with DELL and Verizon (VZ) -- both at the expense of Google (GOOG) and expanded its partnership with Facebook. Given the Windows Beta launch now and mixed response of Windows 7 predecessor Windows Vista, they believe MSFT will likely launch Windows 7 in Nov '09.

JMP notes that at CES, Cisco (CSCO) issued seven press releases and held an extensive press conference specifically talking about its Consumer Electronics business. CSCO stated that 10 of its 24 major new business initiatives touch the consumer: firm believes that the 12-17% growth tgts that CSCO has set for itself depend in part on its CE business showing solid growth.

Lawson (LWSN) reported Q2 (Nov) earnings of $0.10 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the First Call consensus of $0.07; revenues fell 5.6% year/year to $206.4 mln vs the $205.3 mln consensus. Co issues mixed guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.07-0.09 vs. $0.09 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $183-187 mln vs. $210.04 mln consensus. As a result of economic uncertainties the company is not providing updated guidance for fiscal 2009, which ends May 31, 2009. Prior fiscal 2009 guidance should no longer be relied upon.

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